Methodology · fictional example (Alex)
How these figures are calculated
Example plan · Alex, age 10 (fictional)
You're exploring an example. Changes here aren't saved and never become your plan.
This page shows the arithmetic behind the fictional example's figures, using the answers currently in the calculator. This page works out the figures in your browser and doesn't send your answers or results to our server (the site's hosting still handles ordinary page requests, as described in the privacy notice). The figures are planning estimates, not predictions, quotes or professional advice.
Today's dollars, no growth
Every amount is in today's dollars. The model does not add inflation, cost growth, investment returns or discounting: a cost of $10,000 a year for 20 years counts as $200,000. Real future costs, prices and returns will differ.
Where the default numbers come from
The default rates below (yearly costs by support level, housing costs, the replacement-care hourly value, program shares and the disability income amount) are illustrative planning placeholders written for this version of Continuity. They are not drawn from a documented published source, have not been professionally or actuarially validated, and are not specific to any state or ZIP code. Where you enter your own figure, yours is used instead.
The answers this estimate uses
- Current age: 10 — step 1
- Level of support: Regular — step 4
- Continuity transition: age 30 — step 3
- Adult living: Supported living — step 5 or the comparison on the plan page
- Unpaid family care: 25 hours/week — step 2
- Known yearly costs per support area — step 4 and step 6
- Programs in place, expected earned income — step 7; savings, investments, ABLE, insurance — step 8
Scenario horizon
The model runs each scenario to age 82. This is a fixed scenario horizon so that figures are comparable — it is not a prediction about any person's life. From age 10, that gives 72 years. Adult housing and adult income are counted from age 22 (60 adult years). Earned income is counted for at most 25 working years.
1. Yearly support costs
Each support area uses the fictional example's yearly figure where one was entered; otherwise the default for the regular support level. Each yearly figure is multiplied by 72 years.
| Area | Source | Per year | Years | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Supervision | Example figure | $18,000 | 72 | $1.30M |
| Personal care | Illustrative default | $7,200 | 72 | $518K |
| Therapies | Example figure | $9,600 | 72 | $691K |
| Medical support | Illustrative default | $3,600 | 72 | $259K |
| Behavioral support | Not known — illustrative default used | $4,800 | 72 | $346K |
| Communication support | Illustrative default | $1,800 | 72 | $130K |
| Transportation | Example figure | $2,400 | 72 | $173K |
| Other recurring support | Not known — illustrative default used | $1,500 | 72 | $108K |
| Adult living — supported living | Illustrative default for this arrangement | $34,000 | 60 | $2.04M |
All default yearly rates (illustrative)
| Area | Intermittent | Regular | Substantial |
|---|---|---|---|
| Supervision | $3,600 | $12,000 | $30,000 |
| Personal care | $1,800 | $7,200 | $19,000 |
| Therapies | $2,400 | $6,000 | $11,000 |
| Medical support | $1,500 | $3,600 | $8,400 |
| Behavioral support | $1,200 | $4,800 | $12,000 |
| Communication support | $600 | $1,800 | $4,800 |
| Transportation | $1,200 | $2,800 | $5,400 |
| Other recurring support | $600 | $1,500 | $3,000 |
Adult living defaults per year: Living independently $14,000 · Independently with support $22,000 · Living with family $9,000 · Supported living $34,000 · Group or community residential $48,000 · We don't know yet $26,000. "Not sure" support uses the Regular column.
2. Unpaid family care
Unpaid hours are valued at $28 an hour × 52 weeks = $36,400 a year. Before the continuity transition (20 years) this is counted as a need already met by family, so it is added and then subtracted — it never becomes cash to provide. After the transition (52 years), 60% of it is assumed to need another source ($1.14M). Both the hourly value and the 60% share are illustrative.
3. Lifetime support need and family provision
$5.56M support costs + $1.86M unpaid care = $7.42M lifetime support need
$7.42M − $728K family care already provided − $674K modeled program coverage − $428K income and resources = $5.59M estimated family provision
Program coverage is counted only for programs marked "in place", as fixed shares: Medicaid 80% medical support, 60% therapies, 40% communication support; waiver 60% supervision, 70% personal care, 60% behavioral support, 45% transportation; housing assistance 35% of adult housing; other programs 30% of other support; capped at 85% of any one cost. These shares are modeled assumptions, never confirmed funding. Disability income is different: it counts only when marked in place and you enter the actual monthly amount received, annualized ×12 and held flat in today’s dollars (no cost-of-living forecast) for each modeled adult year; otherwise it stays unknown and isn’t counted. No SSI maximum or generic amount is filled in. For reference only, the 2026 federal SSI maximum for one individual is $994/month ($11,928/year) per the Social Security Administration (ssa.gov/oact/COLA/SSI.html); actual payments depend on income and living situation. Program coverage and disability income reduce the family provision; they are funding sources, not part of the gross lifetime support need, and the family provision is not a savings target.
Continuity-period figures on the plan page use the yearly totals above for the 52 years after the transition. Its "expected benefits" line adds two parts: any disability income you entered, counted as its flat yearly amount for the adult years within that period, plus an approximate share of the remaining lifetime modeled program coverage scaled to those years — a simplification, not a separate program calculation.
What you can and can't change
You can change:
- Age, support level, adult living, transition, unpaid hours, known yearly costs, programs in place, the actual monthly disability income received, earned income and resources (steps linked above).
Not editable in this version:
- The default rate tables, the $28/hour replacement value and the 60% replacement share.
- The age-82 scenario horizon, adult start age 22, and 25 working years.
- Program coverage shares and the 85% cap; a custom adult housing cost.
- The caregiver planning horizon in step 3 is not used by any figure, so it's shown read-only; its saved value is kept.